Nigeria’s Renewed Hope for Democratic Development
When the Union Jack was lowered in
Nigeria on October 1, 1960, the potential of Africa’s most populous
nation seemed boundless—and that was before its abundant reserves of
petroleum and natural gas were fully known. However, Nigeria has since
underperformed in virtually every area. A massive fuel shortage, just
days before the historic change in political leadership, underlined how
criminalized and dysfunctional the oil sector had become.
On May 29, Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria’s
president since 2010, will transfer power to a former military ruler,
Muhammadu Buhari. Despite important policy reforms, Jonathan will be
remembered mainly for his unusual name and the failure to defeat Boko
Haram. Similar transfers of power will take place in other federal and
state offices. As a result of the March election, a new coalition, the
All Progressives Congress (APC), has prized a commanding share of
government positions from Jonathan’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Will Nigeria’s new leaders uncover a
path to democratic stability and economic progress? There are reasons to
be hopeful. It took a former military ruler, Olusegun Obasanjo, to
sharply reduce the risk of military coups as an elected president,
1999-2007. Now, another former military strongman, Buhari, and his
coalition party have rekindled hope for radically improved governance
and democratic development.
What explains this potential
turnaround? First, the 2015 elections were the most credible the country
has experienced since constitutional government was restored in 1999.
Second, the winning party brought together political leaders of two
traditionally antagonistic subnational groups: the Hausa-Fulani of the
north and the Yoruba of the southwest. Third, with Buhari as
commander-in-chief, the armed forces are expected to rout Boko Haram and
enable 1.5 million displaced persons to return to their communities.
In addition, competitive democracy will
likely continue: The PDP, which has governed Nigeria for 16 straight
years, is battered but not decimated. It retains political sway in
Jonathan’s Delta region and in neighboring states of the southeast.
Supported by these two zones, as well as constituencies it won elsewhere
in the federation, the party’s fortunes can revive. Whether this
happens will depend on the skills of a revamped leadership and whether
the APC coalition fragments or coheres.
Nigeria is making progress in other
ways: The core institutions of Nigeria’s federal democracy, such as the
judiciary, have withstood decades of political turbulence. The Central
Bank and the Electoral Commission have improved in capacity and
integrity, while the National Bureau of Statistics publishes reliable
policy reports.
Despite these improvements, there is an
extensive list of challenges awaiting Buhari and the APC government.
They include: ending the Boko Haram insurgency; promoting the
socio-economic advance of the largely Muslim and impoverished northern
region; overhauling the criminalized petroleum sector; improving the
core infrastructures of electricity, water supply, and public transport;
drastically reducing corruption in state institutions; and rapidly
increasing jobs in agriculture, agro-processing, and light industry.
Nigeria also illustrates the central
dilemma of “Rising Africa”: an expanding consumer market and middle
class alongside persistent poverty. Inequity in this nation of 175
million is egregious. Many millionaires are spawned as champagne
consumption rises and private airplane ownership soars. These excesses,
based largely on access to state resources, can be redirected to
transformative and sustainable growth. Moreover, millions of Nigeria’s
overseas residents have the knowledge, professional skills, and personal
income to help transform their country, following the examples set by
East and Southeast Asian diasporas.
Endowed with federal institutions
similar to those of the United States, Nigeria belongs to a small club
of multi-ethnic and multi-religious democracies. Buhari has proven his
democratic convictions by thrice competing in flawed elections before
succeeding on a fourth attempt. His vice president, Yemi Osinbajo, is a
high-ranking legal advocate and former attorney-general of Lagos State.
In a world in which Islamic fundamentalism and Western liberalism seem
to be in mortal combat, Nigerian Muslim politicians are as committed to
constitutional democracy as their non-Muslim counterparts. When power is
transferred in Nigerian public squares on May 29, we should briefly set
aside the incessant reports of global turmoil and join in the
celebrations.
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